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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.88+4.87vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+3.03vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+2.88vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.53vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69-1.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+5.55vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.85+2.48vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57-1.10vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.30vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.15-1.66vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.41+0.06vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99-3.03vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.19-1.28vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-4.77vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.36vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.75-1.72vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19-1.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.87University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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5.03University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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5.88Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.53University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.64Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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9.48Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Pennsylvania1.410.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Pennsylvania1.150.0%1st Place
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11.06Cornell University0.410.0%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.72SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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9.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.28Fordham University-0.750.0%1st Place
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15.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 12.5% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.5% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.9% |
| Maya Conway | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Margaux Cowles | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Kit Harned | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.3% |
| Brook Wood | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 10.7% |
| Samantha Hemans | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 25.9% | 25.0% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 18.1% | 47.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.