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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.88+4.64vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.41+5.21vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+2.67vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.57+2.85vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.18-0.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+5.23vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69-3.38vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.79vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.41+1.79vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.85-0.81vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-2.24vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.19-0.66vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-4.11vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania-0.06-1.73vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.61vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.75-1.93vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.21University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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5.67Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.85Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.81University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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3.62Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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5.21University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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10.79Cornell University0.410.0%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.76Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.34SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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8.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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12.27University of Pennsylvania-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.07Fordham University-0.750.0%1st Place
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15.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.4% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| Bridget Green | 20.4% | 18.5% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kit Harned | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Maya Conway | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% |
| Brook Wood | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Annabelle Brameld | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 8.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 9.1% |
| Samantha Hemans | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 21.8% | 24.3% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 18.7% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.