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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.57vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+6.74vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.85+6.20vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+4.70vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+0.62vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.41+1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.88-1.20vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.76vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+3.57vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-3.31vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania-0.06+1.19vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.99vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.19-1.55vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.18-8.96vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.41-4.38vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.75-1.91vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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9.2Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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5.62Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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5.8University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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5.24University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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12.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.69Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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12.19University of Pennsylvania-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.45SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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5.04University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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10.62Cornell University0.410.0%1st Place
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14.09Fordham University-0.750.0%1st Place
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15.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.7% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brook Wood | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Maya Conway | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.4% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 9.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Annabelle Brameld | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 7.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 5.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 12.2% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kit Harned | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Samantha Hemans | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 22.5% | 24.2% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.