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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.72vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.53vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+4.76vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+6.01vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64-0.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.63+2.22vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.43+2.00vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.77vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.60+3.05vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.27+3.43vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.07-4.33vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.77-4.00vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.29-7.26vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.07-3.99vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.23-8.98vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.37-3.12vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-1.08vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.73-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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7.76Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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4.71Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.22Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.0Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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12.05Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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13.43University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.67Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.0Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.74Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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6.02Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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12.88Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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15.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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14.56Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.2% | 15.8% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Lucy Brock | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 3.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 16.4% | 11.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 8.2% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 48.5% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 23.5% | 21.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.