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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+7.48vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.77+5.91vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.29+2.99vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+3.46vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+3.91vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.10+0.52vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.07-0.43vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.64-3.32vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.23-3.03vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.63-1.49vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-0.74vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24+4.05vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.37-0.29vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.27-1.15vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.07-4.72vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.60-3.77vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-6.00vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.73-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.91Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.99Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.46Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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6.52Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.57Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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4.68Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.97Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.51Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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16.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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12.71Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.85University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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10.28University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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12.23Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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11.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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14.62Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.4% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 49.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 7.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 8.5% |
| Miles Williams | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 23.1% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.