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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+5.86vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.67+5.85vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.82+4.24vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.03+2.22vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.51vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.05+0.23vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45+1.51vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38+0.70vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.25+4.19vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00+0.61vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+0.49vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.12-5.76vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.10-4.35vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.05-4.90vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-0.80vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.32-3.91vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.37-5.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.86Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.85Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.22Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.23Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.51Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.7Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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13.19Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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10.61Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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11.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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6.24Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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10.1Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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15.2Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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12.61Connecticut College1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| William Michels | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 16.5% | 14.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 10.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| John Eastman | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 41.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| Matias Martin | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.