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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+5.39vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+4.74vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+6.01vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.05+5.88vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.05+1.16vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+2.73vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.10+2.77vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.82-1.13vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.32+3.75vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59+5.13vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.00-0.65vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.67-4.12vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-4.75vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.12-8.25vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.45-6.65vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.25-2.93vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-5.66vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.70-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.74Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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9.88Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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6.16Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.73Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.77University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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6.87Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.75University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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15.13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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10.35Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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7.88Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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5.75Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.35Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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13.07Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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11.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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14.57Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| John Eastman | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| William Michels | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 9.4% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 36.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.7% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 12.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 18.3% | 28.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.