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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.10+8.97vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.82+5.15vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.67+4.78vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+4.65vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+6.10vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.03+0.23vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-0.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05-1.89vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.12-3.15vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00+0.49vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.45-2.44vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.05-1.61vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.25-0.19vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.38-5.51vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-6.65vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-0.97vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.32-4.15vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.70-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.97University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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7.15Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.78Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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8.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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6.23Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.65Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.11Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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5.85Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.49Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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8.56Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.39Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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12.81Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.49Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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15.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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12.85University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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14.54Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Nash | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| William Michels | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| John Eastman | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 11.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 35.6% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 11.5% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 20.1% | 26.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.