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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+7.63vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+7.03vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+8.57vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.10+4.75vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.82+0.99vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.67+0.61vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.96+5.87vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-0.55vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.38-0.98vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.92-4.19vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.25+1.33vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-0.37vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.05-4.18vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-4.84vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-0.95vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.03-10.67vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.05-11.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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11.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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5.89Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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6.99Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.61Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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13.87Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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8.45Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.02Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.81Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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13.33Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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12.63University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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9.82Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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10.16Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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15.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.03Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| William Michels | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 18.7% | 22.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Emma Cowles | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 17.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 9.9% |
| John Eastman | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 16.9% | 36.6% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.9% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.