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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.47+3.25vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.01+3.36vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49+7.07vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.73+2.31vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.13+3.27vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.52+1.09vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.08+1.41vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-1.29vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.43-4.72vs Predicted
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10Boston University-1.11+3.56vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University1.20-2.92vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.84-2.64vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College-0.81+0.19vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57-4.13vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.13-9.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Harvard University2.470.2%1st Place
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5.36Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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6.31Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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8.27Tufts University1.130.1%1st Place
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7.09Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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8.41University of Rhode Island1.080.1%1st Place
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6.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.630.1%1st Place
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4.28Dartmouth College2.430.2%1st Place
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13.56Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.08Roger Williams University1.200.0%1st Place
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9.36Tufts University0.840.0%1st Place
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13.19Connecticut College-0.810.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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5.19Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordelia Burn | 17.0% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 10.5% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Allison Nystrom | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 12.5% | 2.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Leah Rickard | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 0.7% |
| Mercedes Escandon | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| bella casaretto | 16.5% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 23.7% | 50.2% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 8.1% | 1.4% |
| Viola Henry | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 28.6% | 39.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Lauren Russler | 11.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.