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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.73+8.93vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+5.50vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.34+8.51vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.54+2.59vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia1.83+7.95vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.41+8.47vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.84+2.27vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-2.21vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26-1.34vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.37-2.46vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University4.51-7.13vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+0.90vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.79-3.55vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-5.56vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.85-2.00vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.79-6.37vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.69-3.30vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-11.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.93Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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11.51Georgetown University2.340.0%1st Place
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6.59University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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12.95University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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14.47Georgetown University1.410.0%1st Place
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9.27Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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7.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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3.87Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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12.9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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9.45University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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8.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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13.0Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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9.63U. S. Naval Academy2.790.0%1st Place
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13.7University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Ike Babbitt | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Simon Chivi | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Iacopo Lash | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 30.0% |
| Michael Schalka | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Sam Padnos | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sydney Bolger | 21.6% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Evan Siepert | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| John O'Riordan | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 12.9% |
| James Allsopp | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| William Pilling | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 18.9% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.