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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.45+6.29vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.38+5.61vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.03+2.25vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.84+10.38vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.39+2.57vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.97+3.55vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.77+3.65vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69+2.49vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+2.06vs Predicted
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10Olin College of Engineering0.87+4.22vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.91-1.14vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.25+0.97vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.67-6.20vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.48-2.40vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University0.69-0.17vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.00-6.76vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.28-4.62vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-2.62vs Predicted
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19Brown University2.29-11.06vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.68-9.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.61Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.25Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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14.38Tufts University0.840.0%1st Place
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7.57Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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9.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.970.0%1st Place
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10.65Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.49Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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14.22Olin College of Engineering0.870.0%1st Place
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9.86University of Rhode Island1.910.1%1st Place
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12.97Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.8Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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11.6Tufts University1.480.0%1st Place
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14.83Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
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9.24Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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12.38Brown University1.280.0%1st Place
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15.38Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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7.94Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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10.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 15.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Yu | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Jack Flores | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Connor Macken | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Peter Schnell | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% |
| Henry Lee | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Courtland Doyle | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 19.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Sidney Moyer | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 23.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Katz-Christy | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.