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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.17+2.33vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.90+0.24vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.05+0.93vs Predicted
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4Amherst College-1.69+3.50vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.79+0.29vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.80+1.54vs Predicted
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7McGill University-1.30-0.54vs Predicted
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8Amherst College-2.45+0.90vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.71-1.64vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.76-2.51vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.12-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33Dartmouth College0.1720.1%1st Place
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2.24University of Vermont0.9038.8%1st Place
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3.93University of Vermont-0.0514.3%1st Place
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7.5Amherst College-1.693.3%1st Place
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5.29Middlebury College-0.795.9%1st Place
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7.54Middlebury College-1.802.6%1st Place
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6.46McGill University-1.303.5%1st Place
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8.9Amherst College-2.451.5%1st Place
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7.36Middlebury College-1.712.9%1st Place
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7.49Middlebury College-1.762.6%1st Place
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5.96Williams College-1.124.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eggena | 20.1% | 20.0% | 18.2% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Saffer | 38.8% | 25.9% | 18.6% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Towner | 14.3% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Whitney | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 13.2% |
| Grace Augspurger | 5.9% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Ulian | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| Brendan Chinn | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 4.7% |
| Rufus Fender-Reid | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 39.8% |
| Nick Brodie | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 11.5% |
| Clare Rados | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 12.2% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 4.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.