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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.12vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.38+6.03vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+1.29vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.58+3.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.27+2.79vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.26+5.02vs Predicted
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7University of Miami1.93+4.06vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+3.18vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-1.62vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.39-2.57vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University-1.38-1.11vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University0.87+0.47vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.18vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.83-4.94vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.45-4.44vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-6.69vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.70-2.88vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.17-1.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12Yale University2.4214.1%1st Place
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8.03College of Charleston2.386.2%1st Place
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4.29Stanford University3.3018.5%1st Place
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7.53Boston College2.587.0%1st Place
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7.79Georgetown University2.275.5%1st Place
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11.02Old Dominion University1.262.1%1st Place
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11.06University of Miami1.933.0%1st Place
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11.18Fordham University1.542.6%1st Place
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7.38Bowdoin College2.067.0%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College2.396.8%1st Place
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9.89Jacksonville University-1.383.4%1st Place
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12.47North Carolina State University0.872.1%1st Place
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7.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.0%1st Place
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9.06Tufts University1.834.8%1st Place
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10.56University of South Florida1.453.7%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.9%1st Place
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14.12University of Wisconsin0.701.1%1st Place
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16.95University of Texas-1.170.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 18.5% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Barnard | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 2.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emily Allen | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Brelage | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 4.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 28.8% | 12.6% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 9.9% | 73.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.