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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Williams College-1.22+10.29vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.62+3.79vs Predicted
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3Boston University0.16+4.29vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.24-1.56vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.63-1.49vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.96-0.97vs Predicted
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7Bates College-1.38+4.87vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.13+0.27vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-0.43+0.22vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11+1.32vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.26-2.27vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.20-3.27vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University-0.12-4.57vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-0.09-5.83vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.67-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.29Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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5.79Salve Regina University0.620.1%1st Place
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7.29Boston University0.160.0%1st Place
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2.44University of Rhode Island2.240.4%1st Place
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3.51Roger Williams University1.630.2%1st Place
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5.03Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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11.87Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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8.27University of New Hampshire-0.130.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Vermont-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.73University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.73Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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8.43Fairfield University-0.120.0%1st Place
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8.17Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.91McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 22.5% |
| Emil Tullberg | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Richard Kalich | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 36.1% | 26.5% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 20.5% | 18.5% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gray Dinsel | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 29.1% |
| Sean Lund | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
| Cole Perra | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| Ted Richardsson | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Jane Matthews | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| Nat Edmonds | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.