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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.24+1.46vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.62+3.82vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.63+0.42vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.16+3.31vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.96+0.10vs Predicted
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6Williams College-1.22+5.54vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.26+1.60vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.13+0.28vs Predicted
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9Bates College-1.38+2.96vs Predicted
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10Amherst College-0.09-1.83vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont-0.43-1.76vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11-0.57vs Predicted
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13McGill University-0.67-2.85vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University-0.20-5.56vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University-0.12-6.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46University of Rhode Island2.240.4%1st Place
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5.82Salve Regina University0.620.1%1st Place
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3.42Roger Williams University1.630.2%1st Place
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7.31Boston University0.160.0%1st Place
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5.1Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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11.54Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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8.6University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.28University of New Hampshire-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.96Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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8.17Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.24University of Vermont-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.43University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.15McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
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8.44Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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8.09Fairfield University-0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 37.6% | 24.7% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 19.6% | 20.5% | 18.9% | 14.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 19.2% | 22.6% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Sean Lund | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 27.8% |
| Nat Edmonds | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Will Kelleher | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% |
| Cole Perra | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 21.3% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.