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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+5.48vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.37vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.78+4.48vs Predicted
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4Stanford University4.05+2.32vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.17+0.93vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.70+1.57vs Predicted
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7University of Florida3.41+1.57vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan3.02+1.91vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-2.52vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.64-1.98vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University2.02+2.21vs Predicted
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12University of Minnesota1.75+2.22vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.98-6.50vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles2.63-3.01vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University1.27+0.11vs Predicted
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16Cornell University3.27-6.87vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.42-2.16vs Predicted
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18Ohio State University0.81-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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4.37Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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7.48Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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6.32Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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5.93Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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7.57Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Florida3.410.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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6.48Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.02College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
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13.21Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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14.22University of Minnesota1.750.0%1st Place
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6.5Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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15.11Texas A&M University1.270.0%1st Place
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9.13Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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14.84Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.87Ohio State University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 14.8% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Stokes | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Heausler | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Allison Prange | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 12.2% |
| Colin Smith | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Robert Long | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 17.7% | 21.8% | 21.1% |
| Philip Alley | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Philip Krause | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| Sydney Rush | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 22.3% | 38.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.