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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University0.62+5.16vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.36+2.25vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.63+0.69vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.24-1.37vs Predicted
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5Amherst College-0.09+3.43vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.43+3.43vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.96-1.72vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University-0.12+0.47vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11+2.39vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.13-1.45vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.26-2.16vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.20-3.03vs Predicted
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13Williams College-1.22-1.17vs Predicted
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14Bates College-1.38-1.99vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.67-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.16Salve Regina University0.620.1%1st Place
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4.25Boston University1.360.1%1st Place
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3.69Roger Williams University1.630.2%1st Place
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2.63University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
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8.43Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Vermont-0.430.0%1st Place
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5.28Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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8.47Fairfield University-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.55University of New Hampshire-0.130.0%1st Place
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8.84University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.97Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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11.83Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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12.01Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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10.07McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Tullberg | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Selian | 12.4% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 18.2% | 17.1% | 17.6% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 33.3% | 23.7% | 15.9% | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.8% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 9.2% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jane Matthews | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Cole Perra | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| Sean Lund | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Ted Richardsson | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 25.6% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 16.1% | 30.5% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.