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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.63+2.70vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.24+0.54vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.36+1.32vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.96+1.34vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.43+4.43vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.26+2.95vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-0.09+1.34vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.13+0.52vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11+2.35vs Predicted
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10Bates College-1.38+2.11vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University-0.12-2.53vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.67-1.67vs Predicted
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13Williams College-1.22-1.20vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University0.62-7.82vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.20-6.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Roger Williams University1.630.2%1st Place
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2.54University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
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4.32Boston University1.360.1%1st Place
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5.34Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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9.43University of Vermont-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.95University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.34Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.52University of New Hampshire-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.35University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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12.11Bates College-1.380.0%1st Place
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8.47Fairfield University-0.120.0%1st Place
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10.33McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.8Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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6.18Salve Regina University0.620.1%1st Place
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8.61Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bailey | 18.8% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 34.4% | 24.6% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Selian | 12.6% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Kelleher | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Nat Edmonds | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| Sean Lund | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Cole Perra | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 19.1% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 18.8% | 29.4% |
| Jane Matthews | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 8.9% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 17.8% | 24.9% |
| Emil Tullberg | 6.4% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sean Morrison | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.