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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.56+2.72vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.60+4.22vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island0.90+2.39vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.13+0.79vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.70+1.15vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.31-1.71vs Predicted
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7Amherst College0.36+0.02vs Predicted
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8Bates College-0.50+1.79vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University-0.82+1.80vs Predicted
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10McGill University-0.18-1.15vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.60-0.89vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-0.82-1.01vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.39-3.34vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University-0.62-3.88vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.36-2.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.72Roger Williams University1.560.2%1st Place
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6.22Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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5.39University of Rhode Island0.900.1%1st Place
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4.79University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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6.15Connecticut College0.700.1%1st Place
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4.29Salve Regina University1.310.2%1st Place
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7.02Amherst College0.360.1%1st Place
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9.79Bates College-0.500.0%1st Place
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10.8Salve Regina University-0.820.0%1st Place
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8.85McGill University-0.180.0%1st Place
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10.11Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.99University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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9.66University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.390.0%1st Place
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10.12Fairfield University-0.620.0%1st Place
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12.09University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Burt | 20.6% | 20.6% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Anthony Purcell | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Smith | 14.3% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 15.3% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Suh | 7.9% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Harrison Nash | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 7.3% |
| Tyler Winowiecki | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 13.0% |
| Juan Carrau Carrero | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| Marshall Rodes | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 32.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.