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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.60vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+3.13vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+9.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+4.61vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+1.05vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.07+3.80vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.66+4.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+0.28vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.49-0.78vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.37+2.67vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.07-4.78vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.72-4.29vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.27-0.46vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.77-7.05vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-3.46vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.73-1.56vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-8.04vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.13Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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12.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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8.61Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.05Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.8University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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11.35Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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8.22Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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12.67Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.22Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.71Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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12.54University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.95Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.54Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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14.44Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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8.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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15.51Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.1% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.5% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 6.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 7.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.9% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 18.3% | 23.7% |
| Maks Groom | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 42.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.