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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+4.30vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.49+6.47vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.77+4.38vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.72+3.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+7.02vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.10+0.09vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+1.86vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.64-3.67vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.38-0.43vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.07-3.68vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.66+0.41vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.07-1.84vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.60-1.59vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-5.79vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-2.68vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.73-1.49vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-4.13vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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8.47Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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7.38Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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12.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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6.09Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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4.33Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.57Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.32Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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11.41Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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10.16University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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11.41Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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12.32Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.51Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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15.5Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Derry | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 6.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.7% | 17.9% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Miles Williams | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Porter Bell | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 6.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 19.7% | 23.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 9.4% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 42.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.