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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.24vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.07+4.28vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+1.48vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+1.03vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.38+3.57vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.66+5.39vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.07+2.82vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.72-0.74vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-0.71vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-0.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+1.29vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.49-3.43vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.77-5.93vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.37-1.89vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.73-0.62vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-3.14vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-5.24vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.28Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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4.48Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.03Brown University3.400.2%1st Place
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8.57Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.39Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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12.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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8.57Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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7.07Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.11Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.38Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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11.76Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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15.5Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.7% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 15.7% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Miles Williams | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Jack Derry | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 6.9% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 20.4% | 21.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 9.9% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 4.4% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.