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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.13vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+2.94vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.86vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.34+1.78vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+2.14vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32-0.07vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+2.49vs Predicted
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8Cornell University0.85+2.86vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.81-1.39vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-3.57vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.30-1.44vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.80-0.62vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.27-3.62vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.40-1.93vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.47-2.92vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.26+0.20vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.73-1.75vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19-2.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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4.94Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.78Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.93Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.86Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.61Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.56Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.800.0%1st Place
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9.38Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.400.0%1st Place
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12.08Cornell University0.470.0%1st Place
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16.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.260.0%1st Place
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15.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.730.0%1st Place
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15.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 12.8% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.2% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Maya Conway | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Owen Carolan | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Owen Harrod | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Ava Grace Sannino | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Myles Holt | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 14.2% | 25.5% | 40.1% |
| Maxim Carle | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 26.7% | 19.8% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 15.0% | 29.0% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.