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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.82+4.24vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida1.24+8.47vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+1.18vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.48vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.39-1.22vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+1.67vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.65+2.12vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.55-1.94vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-2.41vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.37-3.35vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37+2.33vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin0.86-0.27vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-2.51vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.28-3.46vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.60vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-1.93vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University0.74-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.24Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.47University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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4.18Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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7.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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3.78Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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9.12North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.06Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.65Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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13.33Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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10.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.54Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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13.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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14.07University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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12.21Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Sibilly | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.1% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 19.8% | 20.2% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 18.6% | 21.3% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 7.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 18.5% | 22.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 16.9% | 29.2% |
| Katherine McGagh | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.