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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+3.11vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+4.06vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+7.44vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.46vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.37+1.60vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.39-2.07vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-1.68vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.37+5.02vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-1.29vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-3.64vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.65-1.72vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-1.56vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.24-2.38vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.86-2.06vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University0.74-2.87vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-1.96vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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6.06Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.6Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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3.93Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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5.32Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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13.02Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.28North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.44Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.62University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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11.94University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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12.13Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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14.04University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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13.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 20.1% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 18.1% | 17.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 18.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.2% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 18.1% | 28.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.