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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+5.39vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.64+5.97vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+1.36vs Predicted
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4Stanford University4.05+2.25vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.70+2.50vs Predicted
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6University of Florida3.41+2.64vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.78+0.25vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.56vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University2.02+4.18vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.98-3.16vs Predicted
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11Harvard University4.17-4.91vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.27-2.58vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan3.02-3.16vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles2.63-2.98vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.42-0.24vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota1.75-2.01vs Predicted
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17Ohio State University0.81-0.91vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University1.27-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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7.97College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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4.36Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.25Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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7.5Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Florida3.410.0%1st Place
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7.25Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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6.44Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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13.18Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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6.84Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.09Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.42Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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9.84University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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11.02University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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14.76Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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13.99University of Minnesota1.750.0%1st Place
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16.09Ohio State University0.810.0%1st Place
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14.97Texas A&M University1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 16.4% | 15.0% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Heausler | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Martland | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 12.1% | 4.7% |
| Colin Smith | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Stokes | 9.5% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Philip Krause | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| Allison Prange | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 10.5% |
| Sydney Rush | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 12.3% | 20.7% | 43.7% |
| Robert Long | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.