← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.39+2.71vs Predicted
-
2Tulane University2.37+4.61vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College3.23+1.25vs Predicted
-
4Boston College2.82+1.38vs Predicted
-
5University of South Florida1.24+5.38vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.63vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+0.51vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University1.28+2.22vs Predicted
-
9University of Wisconsin0.86+2.95vs Predicted
-
10North Carolina State University1.65-0.95vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-4.39vs Predicted
-
12Georgetown University2.55-5.87vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-2.44vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.43vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont0.08-1.09vs Predicted
-
16Roger Williams University0.74-3.78vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University0.37-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.71Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
-
6.61Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
-
4.25Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
-
5.38Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
-
10.38University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
-
7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
-
10.22Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
-
11.95University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
-
9.05North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
-
6.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
-
6.13Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
-
10.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
-
13.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
13.91University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
-
12.22Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
-
13.32Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 21.9% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 16.6% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 1.9% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 2.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 7.2% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 19.1% | 29.1% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% |
| Laura Smith | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.