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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+3.11vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+5.40vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+0.81vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55+2.21vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.37+1.60vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.56vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-1.67vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-1.65vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.65+0.24vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37+3.22vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.24-0.38vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University0.74+0.18vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.28-2.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.45vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-4.60vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.86-4.15vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.08-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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7.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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3.81Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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6.21Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.6Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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5.33Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.24North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.22Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.62University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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12.18Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.48Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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13.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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11.85University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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14.08University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 18.4% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.5% | 17.7% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 9.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 18.2% | 22.9% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 30.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.