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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+5.28vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+1.77vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+1.18vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+3.58vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55+1.08vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.65+3.32vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-1.69vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.37-1.39vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-1.46vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.08+4.04vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.24-0.40vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University0.74+0.16vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.28-2.56vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-3.42vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.37-1.82vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.86-4.19vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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3.77Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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4.18Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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7.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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6.08Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.32North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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5.31Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.61Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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14.04University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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10.6University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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12.16Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.44Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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13.18Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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13.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.7% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 16.4% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 27.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Laura Smith | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 18.0% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.