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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+6.31vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+1.74vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.65+6.06vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55+2.18vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.20vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.24+4.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-0.62vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University0.74+3.85vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.82-3.59vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.28+0.29vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.23-6.67vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.40vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.86-1.17vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.37-0.74vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.37-8.36vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-2.01vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-5.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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3.74Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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9.06North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.18Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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10.65University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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6.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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11.85Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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5.41Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.29Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.33Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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13.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.83University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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13.26Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.64Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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13.99University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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11.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.2% | 17.8% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McGagh | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 9.3% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| Laura Smith | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 18.5% | 28.2% |
| Brook Wood | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.