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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+5.28vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.37+4.55vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+0.79vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+3.54vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.23-0.89vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin0.86+5.89vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+4.30vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-0.73vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.55-2.76vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.65-0.99vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.24-0.46vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-1.68vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.82-7.64vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University0.74-1.79vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.63vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-2.02vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.37-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.55Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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3.79Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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4.11Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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11.89University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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11.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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7.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.24Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.01North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.54University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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10.32Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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5.36Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.21Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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13.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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13.98University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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13.24Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 19.7% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.8% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| Brook Wood | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Sowa | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McGagh | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.4% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 16.9% | 28.3% |
| Laura Smith | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 17.4% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.