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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.91+3.37vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.06+5.10vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.11+0.97vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+4.82vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.50vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.26vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.89+0.81vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.16-1.26vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.76+2.99vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.46-0.72vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.37-4.71vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-0.64vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.07-5.74vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-2.13vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.43-2.14vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.01-4.93vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37Boston College2.910.2%1st Place
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7.1Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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3.97Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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7.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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10.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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7.81University of South Florida1.890.1%1st Place
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6.74Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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11.99University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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9.28North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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11.36St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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11.87Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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11.07Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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14.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela O'Brien | 17.0% | 16.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Freeman | 20.0% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.6% |
| Eden Nykamp | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Benson | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Taylor Eastman | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 9.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| Megan Geith | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.