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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.91+3.37vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+6.69vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.46+6.42vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+7.33vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.53vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.76+6.05vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.11-3.08vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.16-1.26vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.19vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.79+1.72vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.01+0.04vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.37-5.88vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.06-5.68vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.07-6.75vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.89-7.18vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.43-3.00vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37Boston College2.910.2%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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9.42North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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11.33St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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7.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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12.05University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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3.92Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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6.74Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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11.72Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.04Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.32Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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7.82University of South Florida1.890.1%1st Place
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13.0University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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14.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela O'Brien | 18.4% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Lily Flack | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.7% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.1% |
| Hannah Freeman | 19.5% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 14.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Benson | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 8.1% |
| Megan Geith | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 5.8% |
| Kelly Bates | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 18.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 42.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.