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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.46+8.15vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.16+4.76vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.91+1.49vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.89+3.81vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.11-1.08vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.37+0.32vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+0.60vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+3.55vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.43+4.06vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.06-2.79vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.01+0.11vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.07-4.81vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62-4.07vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.78vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-3.22vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-4.58vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.15North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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6.76Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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4.49Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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7.81University of South Florida1.890.1%1st Place
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3.92Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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6.32Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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11.55Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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13.06University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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7.21Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.11Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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8.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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10.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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11.42St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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14.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 14.9% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Freeman | 20.1% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 20.7% | 17.3% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Megan Geith | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.8% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Julia Conneely | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 10.2% |
| Lily Flack | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.