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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+7.62vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.11+1.92vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.91+1.54vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.79+7.75vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.16+1.81vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.19vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.33-0.68vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.06-0.89vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+2.52vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.76+1.78vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.46-1.44vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-4.36vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.89-5.12vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.37-7.71vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.43-2.19vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.45vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University0.81-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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3.92Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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4.54Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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11.75Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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6.81Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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6.32Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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7.11Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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9.56North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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7.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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7.88University of South Florida1.890.1%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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12.81University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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14.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.71Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Conneely | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Hannah Freeman | 19.3% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 15.0% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Gray Hemans | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 8.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Eden Nykamp | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 41.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.