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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+10.04vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.81+9.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+5.70vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+3.71vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.46+4.22vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.24vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.43+5.87vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.91-3.50vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.89-0.98vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.37-3.89vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.06-3.65vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.33-5.67vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.76-1.09vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.16-7.04vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.11-10.92vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.46vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.79-5.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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11.55Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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8.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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7.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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9.22North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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10.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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4.5Boston College2.910.2%1st Place
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8.02University of South Florida1.890.0%1st Place
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6.11Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.35Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.33Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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11.91University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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6.96Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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4.08Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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14.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.87Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Flack | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 5.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 6.9% |
| Julia Conneely | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 17.7% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.6% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Freeman | 19.9% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 41.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.