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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.30+4.95vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.64+6.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy4.09+3.64vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+0.45vs Predicted
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5University of Florida3.41+3.77vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01+0.74vs Predicted
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7Stanford University4.05-0.44vs Predicted
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8Harvard University4.50-2.89vs Predicted
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9University of Minnesota2.63+2.57vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University2.02+3.58vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.78-3.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles2.63-0.22vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.56-4.83vs Predicted
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14Tulane University1.42+0.78vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.27-5.73vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan3.02-5.68vs Predicted
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17Ohio State University0.81-0.75vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University1.27-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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8.25College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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4.45Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.77University of Florida3.410.0%1st Place
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6.74Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.56Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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5.11Harvard University4.500.1%1st Place
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11.57University of Minnesota2.630.0%1st Place
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13.58Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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7.67Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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11.78University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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8.17Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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14.78Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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16.25Ohio State University0.810.0%1st Place
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15.14Texas A&M University1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fink | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.5% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Heausler | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tedd Himler | 12.9% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Burton | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Bryan Rust | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 16.1% | 6.8% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Philip Krause | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 21.1% | 19.6% |
| Philip Alley | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Seago | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Sydney Rush | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 22.4% | 46.5% |
| Robert Long | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 24.9% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.