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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+4.54vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.19+5.75vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University4.78+2.62vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+2.56vs Predicted
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5University of Miami3.99+3.22vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.68vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College3.70+2.36vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida4.17-0.45vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin4.10-1.21vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.62-0.11vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California3.16+0.48vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.89-6.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-2.10vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.65-4.65vs Predicted
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15University of Texas2.50-1.47vs Predicted
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16University of Oregon2.51-2.42vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University2.41-3.14vs Predicted
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18Marquette University0.69-1.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.75Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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5.62Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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6.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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8.22University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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7.68SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.36Eckerd College3.700.0%1st Place
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7.55University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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9.89University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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11.48University of Southern California3.160.0%1st Place
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5.4Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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10.9University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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9.35Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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13.53University of Texas2.500.0%1st Place
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13.58University of Oregon2.510.0%1st Place
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13.86Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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16.93Marquette University0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Morris | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 11.0% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Hidde Van Der Molen | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Zachary Marks | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Lue | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Sinks | 13.8% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Scott Proctor | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 20.3% | 6.8% |
| Philip Gordon | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 19.9% | 7.3% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 23.7% | 8.3% |
| Patrick Farrell | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 12.0% | 72.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.