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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+5.85vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.71+5.46vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.09+5.93vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+5.51vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.59+1.81vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.43+1.46vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.07+2.25vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.14+0.18vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.87+0.01vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-0.64vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.18-2.37vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.50-0.84vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.28-4.79vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.90vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-6.44vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College-0.13-2.09vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.69-6.46vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85St. Mary's College of Maryland1.687.9%1st Place
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7.46Northeastern University1.718.6%1st Place
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8.93Connecticut College1.096.2%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.0%1st Place
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6.81Tufts University1.5910.8%1st Place
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7.46Webb Institute1.437.3%1st Place
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9.25George Washington University1.076.0%1st Place
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8.18Boston University1.147.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Vermont0.876.0%1st Place
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9.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.994.8%1st Place
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8.63Cornell University1.185.8%1st Place
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11.16Florida State University0.503.1%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania1.286.5%1st Place
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12.1SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.2%1st Place
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13.91Connecticut College-0.131.8%1st Place
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10.54Fordham University0.693.6%1st Place
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15.07Princeton University-0.470.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Duncan Craine | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Gus Macaulay | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Walker | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Brady Parks | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 5.2% |
| John Majernik | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 9.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 17.8% | 25.3% |
| James Owen | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 42.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.