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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.45vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+5.24vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.53+8.74vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.48vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+3.31vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42+1.54vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75+3.86vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.54-1.24vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.32vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.90vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-1.99vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.12+1.68vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-1.44vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.79-3.71vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.50-3.25vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-5.03vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.11vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.83-7.62vs Predicted
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19Roger Williams University2.30-6.37vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College1.43-3.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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11.74Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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9.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.31University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.54Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.86Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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10.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.01College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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13.68Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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11.56Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.29Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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11.75Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.97University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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12.63Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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16.23Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Will Priebe | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 13.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% |
| Reade Decker | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Will Murray | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.