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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+6.35vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+8.06vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+9.56vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.10+4.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.75+5.31vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.47+1.24vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+4.73vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.23-0.02vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.59vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.66vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.60vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.54-4.97vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-1.76vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.79-3.82vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.65vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.62-5.00vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.50-5.59vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.95vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.79-4.51vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.70-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.35Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.06University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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12.56Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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8.76College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.31Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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11.73Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.98University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.03Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.24University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.18Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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9.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.0Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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11.41Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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14.49Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
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17.9Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 6.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Reade Decker | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| Will Murray | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Everett Nash | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 18.7% | 12.7% |
| Andrew Powers | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 59.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.