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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+5.89vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+5.41vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.37vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.37vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.91vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.47+0.49vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.79+2.10vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-0.86vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.10-1.16vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.08vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.83-1.69vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.30-0.06vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.75-3.53vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.50-3.30vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-5.11vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.53-5.65vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.43-1.87vs Predicted
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19Tufts University2.62-7.88vs Predicted
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20Northeastern University1.79-5.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.41Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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10.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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7.49Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.1Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.84College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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10.31University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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12.94Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.47Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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11.7Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.89University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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11.35Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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16.13Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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11.12Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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14.88Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 35.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Everett Nash | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 21.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.