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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.36vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+5.23vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+7.26vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+3.44vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.79+5.26vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+2.36vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.66vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+2.66vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.75vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.99vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.54-4.00vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.75-1.29vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.30+0.01vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.50-2.40vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-6.12vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.43-0.01vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.53-5.63vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.79-3.18vs Predicted
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19Tufts University2.62-7.90vs Predicted
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20St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-10.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.23Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.26University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.44Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.26Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.66University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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7.0Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.71Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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13.01Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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11.6Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.88College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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15.99Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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11.37Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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14.82Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
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11.1Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Reade Decker | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Will Murray | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 36.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| Everett Nash | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 20.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.