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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.30+11.48vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+7.38vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.51vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+3.42vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+3.23vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.54+0.96vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.28vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.10+0.64vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.96vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.79+0.25vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53+0.55vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.47-4.63vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.42-0.64vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.66-3.18vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.64vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-5.26vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.12-3.80vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.70-0.10vs Predicted
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19Tufts University2.62-8.00vs Predicted
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20Yale University2.75-9.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.48Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.38St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.42Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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6.96Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.64College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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10.25Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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11.55Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.37Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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12.36Tulane University2.420.0%1st Place
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10.82University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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13.2Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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17.9Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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11.0Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.59Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 4.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Reade Decker | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Zander King | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Will Priebe | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 8.4% |
| Andrew Powers | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 11.0% | 61.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.