← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+8.19vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.53+9.22vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.17vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.51vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+5.38vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.54+0.74vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.47+0.05vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.10vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.75+1.02vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.79-0.07vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.12+1.97vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.53vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.63vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.62-3.09vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.42-7.82vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-5.51vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.10-8.45vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.42-6.44vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College1.43-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.19U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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11.22Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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6.74Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.05Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.1University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.02Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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9.93Stanford University2.790.0%1st Place
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12.97Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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9.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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10.91Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.18Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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8.55College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.56Tulane University2.420.0%1st Place
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15.18Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Reade Decker | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Will Priebe | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 14.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Zander King | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.