← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.54+5.78vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island3.23+6.18vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College3.47+4.17vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.18vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.53+6.51vs Predicted
-
6Tulane University2.50+5.17vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.16vs Predicted
-
8Brown University3.42-0.49vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.64vs Predicted
-
10Northeastern University2.12+2.92vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-0.45vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.45vs Predicted
-
13Stanford University2.79-3.24vs Predicted
-
14Yale University2.75-3.69vs Predicted
-
15Tufts University2.62-4.33vs Predicted
-
16College of Charleston3.10-7.51vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.31vs Predicted
-
18University of Miami2.66-7.46vs Predicted
-
19Connecticut College1.43-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.78Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
-
8.18University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
7.17Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
-
9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
11.51Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
-
11.17Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
-
9.16U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.51Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
-
9.64University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
12.92Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
-
10.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
-
10.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
-
9.76Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
-
10.31Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
-
10.67Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
-
8.49College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
-
10.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
-
10.54University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
-
15.21Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Will Priebe | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 13.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Reade Decker | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Will Murray | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 37.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.