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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.13vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+7.80vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.79+7.08vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.54+2.70vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.47+2.24vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42+1.16vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+4.13vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.50+3.48vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66+1.31vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.75+0.07vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.98vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.02vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.10-4.71vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.62-3.15vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.04vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.23-8.18vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.12-4.22vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.69vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.70-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.08Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.7Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.16Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.13Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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11.48Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.31University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.07Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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9.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.29College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.85Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.82University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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12.78Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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10.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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16.88Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Reade Decker | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 4.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 2.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Powers | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 59.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.