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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+7.57vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.71+5.35vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+4.52vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.18+4.73vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+1.93vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.28+2.11vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.52vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.09+1.06vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14-0.44vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.07-0.88vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-1.37vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.59-5.21vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.69-2.42vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.50-3.24vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.30vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-6.80vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College-0.13-3.11vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.47-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.2%1st Place
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7.35Northeastern University1.717.5%1st Place
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7.52Webb Institute1.438.4%1st Place
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8.73Cornell University1.185.9%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland1.689.5%1st Place
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8.11University of Pennsylvania1.287.3%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.994.8%1st Place
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9.06Connecticut College1.095.6%1st Place
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8.56Boston University1.145.7%1st Place
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9.12George Washington University1.075.2%1st Place
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9.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.995.3%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University1.599.7%1st Place
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10.58Fordham University0.694.2%1st Place
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10.76Florida State University0.503.2%1st Place
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11.7SUNY Maritime College0.413.4%1st Place
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9.2University of Vermont0.875.1%1st Place
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13.89Connecticut College-0.131.7%1st Place
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14.98Princeton University-0.471.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Will Priebe | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| John Majernik | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| James Owen | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% |
| Brady Parks | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 18.8% | 25.3% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.