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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+6.03vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.66+8.56vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.18vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+4.03vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.50+6.55vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.79+3.83vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.51vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.75+2.34vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.42-1.94vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.53+1.00vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.62-0.33vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.83-1.85vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.54-6.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.85vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-5.07vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-7.58vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.12-4.23vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.70-0.82vs Predicted
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19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-8.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.03Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.56University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.03University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.55Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.83Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.34Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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7.06Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.0Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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10.67Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.15University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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6.48Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.15U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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8.42College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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12.77Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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17.18Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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10.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 2.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| Reade Decker | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 9.8% |
| Andrew Powers | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 61.9% |
| Will Murray | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.